Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

388.26 – 218.61

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 104.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 801 ±11.7

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 30.78Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 123.26Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 234.22Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.3 ±14.6

3397Robolions

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 15.24Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 111.2Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 92.17Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8069, 3931, 1706

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8069, 3931, 1706

Auto

73.8 20%

Teleop

221.2 59%

Endgame

81.4 22%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3397, 4500, 5823

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3397, 4500, 5823

Auto

47.9 23%

Teleop

117.5 57%

Endgame

41.2 20%

Strengths

· 4500 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score388.3pts

Blue projected score218.6pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.6
Score range: 197–410
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

801Season APEX296.3

73.8Auto47.9

221.2Teleop117.5

81.4Endgame41.2

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	24
teleop	105	119
endgame	29	37
foul	0	0
total	218	180

Result

Final score

218 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 104.4 pts

Match videos

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