Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.28 – 115.75

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181 ±15.3

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 36.95Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10322Beyond the Bell

Season APEX 48Event APEX 16.27Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 23.06Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±16.9

1329The ViPrs

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 30.15Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 56.82Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4314Springfield Urban League Abe-Ro-Bots

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 28.78Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6817, 10322, 1208

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6817, 10322, 1208

Auto

16.9 22%

Teleop

31.3 41%

Endgame

28.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1329, 931, 4314

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1329, 931, 4314

Auto

33.7 30%

Teleop

53.8 48%

Endgame

24.3 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76.3pts

Blue projected score115.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.5
Score range: 54–138
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 120.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181Season APEX369

16.9Auto33.7

31.3Teleop53.8

28.2Endgame24.3

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	49
teleop	19	83
endgame	18	21
foul	5	0
total	64	153

Result

Final score

64 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 pts

Match videos

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