Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.29 – 48.57

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.4 ±17.5

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 20.29Rank 30Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 92

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX 3.71Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7496Robo Indians

Provisional

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 10.29Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±12.7

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 16.57Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 21.71Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 10.29Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9428, 5002, 7496

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9428, 5002, 7496

Auto

14.3 42%

Teleop

10.6 31%

Endgame

9.4 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3792, 11195, 1785

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3792, 11195, 1785

Auto

25.7 55%

Teleop

12.0 25%

Endgame

9.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score34.3pts

Blue projected score48.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.3
Score range: 15–68
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 51 vs event baseline 104.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.4Season APEX277.8

14.3Auto25.7

10.6Teleop12

9.4Endgame9.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	26
teleop	0	8
endgame	0	3
foul	0	0
total	14	37

Result

Final score

14 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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