Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.08 – 93.1

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 112 ±19.6

8077DREAM

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX -Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6744MEHLVILLE RC

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX -Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1288RAVEN Robotics

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX -Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.7 ±16.7

10322Beyond the Bell

Season APEX 48Event APEX -Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5060IgKnight

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 57.71Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8077, 6744, 1288

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8077, 6744, 1288

Auto

15.9 30%

Teleop

26.5 50%

Endgame

10.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10322, 5060, 9401

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10322, 5060, 9401

Auto

15.8 18%

Teleop

46.0 52%

Endgame

27.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score53.1pts

Blue projected score93.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40
Score range: 34–112
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 106.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

112Season APEX363.7

-Auto5.1

-Teleop28.3

-Endgame20

-Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	40
teleop	25	50
endgame	12	52
foul	0	0
total	50	142

Result

Final score

50 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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