Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.2 – 176.58

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.8 ±15.8

10322Beyond the Bell

Season APEX 48Event APEX 14.74Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9031Wildbots

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 16.35Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 11.11Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.4 ±16

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 43.86Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 125.54Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5176RoboBills

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 7.18Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10322, 9031, 8719

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10322, 9031, 8719

Auto

16.3 44%

Teleop

14.4 39%

Endgame

6.0 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6817, 4500, 5176

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6817, 4500, 5176

Auto

36.4 22%

Teleop

83.5 51%

Endgame

45.2 27%

Strengths

· 4500 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score42.2pts

Blue projected score176.6pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -134.4
Score range: 21–198
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 119.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.8Season APEX234.4

16.3Auto36.4

14.4Teleop83.5

6Endgame45.2

12Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	21
teleop	16	31
endgame	11	17
foul	5	5
total	56	74

Result

Final score

56 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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