Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

245.69 – 158.27

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

219 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 569.4 ±12.4

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX 5.72Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 109.48Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 130.49Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.7 ±14.7

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 125.08Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3397Robolions

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 17.05Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 16.14Rank 30Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5002, 9401, 6391

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5002, 9401, 6391

Auto

53.0 23%

Teleop

138.7 59%

Endgame

43.0 18%

Strengths

· 6391 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3931, 3397, 9428

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3931, 3397, 9428

Auto

39.8 27%

Teleop

78.1 53%

Endgame

30.1 20%

Strengths

· 3931 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score245.7pts

Blue projected score158.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.4
Score range: 137–267
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 118.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

569.4Season APEX340.7

53Auto39.8

138.7Teleop78.1

43Endgame30.1

3Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	49
teleop	91	52
endgame	58	33
foul	10	20
total	219	154

Result

Final score

219 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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