Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.89 – 93.1

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.1 ±19.1

4330Rambunction

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 56.84Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1288RAVEN Robotics

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 18.27Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7117Robotic Dragons

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 26.78Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 135.9 ±18.1

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 54.35Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1178DURT (De Smet United Robotics Team)

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 13.06Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4314Springfield Urban League Abe-Ro-Bots

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 25.69Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4330, 1288, 7117

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4330, 1288, 7117

Auto

19.8 20%

Teleop

59.6 60%

Endgame

20.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11195, 1178, 4314

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11195, 1178, 4314

Auto

30.2 33%

Teleop

34.9 38%

Endgame

27.6 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.9pts

Blue projected score93.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.8
Score range: 72–123
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 118.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.1Season APEX135.9

19.8Auto30.2

59.6Teleop34.9

20.1Endgame27.6

17Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	20
teleop	68	4
endgame	9	5
foul	5	5
total	104	34

Result

Final score

104 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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