Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.19 – 58.75

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 11 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386 ±16

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 30.47Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2408Shrapnel Sergeants

Provisional

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 15.78Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 52.94Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 122.4 ±18.4

7496Robo Indians

Provisional

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 19.95Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 23.09Rank 37Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8077DREAM

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 15.71Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1982, 2408, 931

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1982, 2408, 931

Auto

26.8 28%

Teleop

43.2 45%

Endgame

26.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7496, 4329, 8077

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7496, 4329, 8077

Auto

17.5 31%

Teleop

20.4 36%

Endgame

18.3 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.2pts

Blue projected score58.8pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.4
Score range: 37–121
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 136 vs event baseline 120.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386Season APEX122.4

26.8Auto17.5

43.2Teleop20.4

26.2Endgame18.3

0Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	25
teleop	36	23
endgame	23	3
foul	0	0
total	85	51

Result

Final score

85 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 11 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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