Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.26 – 35.85

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.8 ±15.4

4314Springfield Urban League Abe-Ro-Bots

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 21.1Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 126.48Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9031Wildbots

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 11.68Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.2 ±16.6

7452Dupo Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 22.87Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX 5.77Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 7.21Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4314, 6391, 9031

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4314, 6391, 9031

Auto

42.3 29%

Teleop

82.1 56%

Endgame

22.5 15%

Strengths

· 6391 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7452, 5002, 1208

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7452, 5002, 1208

Auto

9.7 29%

Teleop

21.1 63%

Endgame

2.5 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score159.3pts

Blue projected score35.9pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.4
Score range: 15–180
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 119.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.8Season APEX230.2

42.3Auto9.7

82.1Teleop21.1

22.5Endgame2.5

45Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	15
teleop	107	10
endgame	26	13
foul	15	0
total	200	38

Result

Final score

200 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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