Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.2 – 27.39

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.4 ±14.6

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 22.06Rank 37Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 52Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1329The ViPrs

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 32.14Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 75.9 ±20.2

4931Edwardsville Technologies

Provisional

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX -1.25Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8077DREAM

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 13.8Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10322Beyond the Bell

Season APEX 48Event APEX 14.84Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4329, 11195, 1329

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4329, 11195, 1329

Auto

34.2 31%

Teleop

55.7 51%

Endgame

18.8 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4931, 8077, 10322

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4931, 8077, 10322

Auto

8.0 40%

Teleop

5.2 26%

Endgame

7.0 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.2pts

Blue projected score27.4pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.8
Score range: 6–127
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 119.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.4Season APEX75.9

34.2Auto8

55.7Teleop5.2

18.8Endgame7

7Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	19
teleop	57	16
endgame	35	0
foul	0	0
total	125	35

Result

Final score

125 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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