Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.8 – 151.53

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 5.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.8 ±18.1

1288RAVEN Robotics

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 20.74Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 20.4Rank 17Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2408Shrapnel Sergeants

Provisional

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 15.66Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.9 ±15.3

7117Robotic Dragons

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 27.24Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 76

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 93.88Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 30.41Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1288, 7472, 2408

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1288, 7472, 2408

Auto

17.5 29%

Teleop

26.6 44%

Endgame

16.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7117, 5823, 1982

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7117, 5823, 1982

Auto

21.3 15%

Teleop

74.8 53%

Endgame

45.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56.8pts

Blue projected score151.5pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.7
Score range: 35–174
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145.8Season APEX244.9

17.5Auto21.3

26.6Teleop74.8

16.8Endgame45.2

6Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	30
teleop	11	89
endgame	17	17
foul	0	15
total	46	151

Result

Final score

46 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 5.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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