Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.21 – 321.58

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134.3 ±17.7

6744MEHLVILLE RC

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 20.05Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 0.23Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2978Cavaliers

Provisional

Season APEX 32Event APEX 2.93Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 677.5 ±15.6

10317CIA Robotics Presents: BIG Furious George

Provisional

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 28.01Rank 23Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 51.13Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 242.44Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6744, 1785, 2978

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.2 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6744, 1785, 2978

Auto

16.4 100%

Teleop

-2.0 0%

Endgame

0.6 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10317, 931, 1706

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10317, 931, 1706

Auto

57.0 18%

Teleop

200.9 62%

Endgame

66.5 20%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.36 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score23.2pts

Blue projected score321.6pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -298.4
Score range: 2–343
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 118.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134.3Season APEX677.5

16.4Auto57

-2Teleop200.9

0.6Endgame66.5

68Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	76
teleop	39	174
endgame	9	88
foul	0	0
total	71	338

Result

Final score

71 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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