Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.28 – 155.37

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

293 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 64.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 560 ±11

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 10.42Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 115.55Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 122.31Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389.1 ±16.2

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 115.21Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1178DURT (De Smet United Robotics Team)

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 22.75Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX 17.41Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3792, 3931, 6391

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3792, 3931, 6391

Auto

68.3 29%

Teleop

133.1 56%

Endgame

35.3 15%

Strengths

· 6391 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9401, 1178, 3200

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9401, 1178, 3200

Auto

21.4 14%

Teleop

75.3 50%

Endgame

53.5 36%

Strengths

· 9401 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score248.3pts

Blue projected score155.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.9
Score range: 134–269
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 117.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

560Season APEX389.1

68.3Auto21.4

133.1Teleop75.3

35.3Endgame53.5

56Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	35
teleop	127	29
endgame	43	7
foul	35	0
total	293	71

Result

Final score

293 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 64.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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