Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.38 – 204.16

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 108.1 ±18.4

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 8.84Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7496Robo Indians

Provisional

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 26.48Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4931Edwardsville Technologies

Provisional

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 0.06Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.6 ±12.7

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 56.18Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 19.74Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 128.24Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1208, 7496, 4931

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1208, 7496, 4931

Auto

12.5 39%

Teleop

3.5 11%

Endgame

16.4 51%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11195, 8719, 4500

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11195, 8719, 4500

Auto

53.2 26%

Teleop

115.9 57%

Endgame

34.2 17%

Strengths

· 4500 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.54 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score35.4pts

Blue projected score204.2pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -168.8
Score range: 14–225
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 117.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

108.1Season APEX285.6

12.5Auto53.2

3.5Teleop115.9

16.4Endgame34.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	64
teleop	1	71
endgame	2	24
foul	0	10
total	17	169

Result

Final score

17 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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