Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.32 – 129.99

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.9 ±17.3

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 71.95Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10322Beyond the Bell

Season APEX 48Event APEX 11.34Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5583SistamatiK

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 14.03Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.8 ±17.5

3397Robolions

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 19.78Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 95.46Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2408Shrapnel Sergeants

Provisional

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 14.75Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4256, 10322, 5583

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4256, 10322, 5583

Auto

21.9 25%

Teleop

52.4 59%

Endgame

14.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3397, 5823, 2408

/ 100 compat

Projected

130 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3397, 5823, 2408

Auto

15.7 13%

Teleop

66.1 53%

Endgame

42.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.3pts

Blue projected score130pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.7
Score range: 76–151
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 117.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.9Season APEX201.8

21.9Auto15.7

52.4Teleop66.1

14.8Endgame42.6

0Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	31
teleop	32	61
endgame	68	12
foul	5	5
total	132	109

Result

Final score

132 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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