Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

287.03 – 97.65

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

312 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.4 ±16

6744MEHLVILLE RC

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 16.49Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1329The ViPrs

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 29.42Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 241.12Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.1 ±17.1

4330Rambunction

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 47.37Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 28.19Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4314Springfield Urban League Abe-Ro-Bots

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 22.09Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6744, 1329, 1706

/ 100 compat

Projected

287 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6744, 1329, 1706

Auto

44.9 16%

Teleop

172.3 60%

Endgame

70.8 25%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4330, 1982, 4314

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4330, 1982, 4314

Auto

26.2 28%

Teleop

50.8 54%

Endgame

17.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score287pts

Blue projected score97.7pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.4
Score range: 77–308
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 115.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.4Season APEX154.1

44.9Auto26.2

172.3Teleop50.8

70.8Endgame17.9

52Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	40
teleop	208	30
endgame	30	36
foul	10	0
total	312	106

Result

Final score

312 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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