Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.25 – 51.71

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

74 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216 ±16.6

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 17.05Rank 37Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10317CIA Robotics Presents: BIG Furious George

Provisional

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 26.06Rank 23Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 6.14Rank 30Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.5 ±18.1

2978Cavaliers

Provisional

Season APEX 32Event APEX 3.35Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 18.44Rank 17Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7117Robotic Dragons

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 29.92Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4329, 10317, 9428

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4329, 10317, 9428

Auto

23.7 46%

Teleop

15.2 29%

Endgame

13.1 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2978, 7472, 7117

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2978, 7472, 7117

Auto

20.3 39%

Teleop

20.4 39%

Endgame

11.8 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.3pts

Blue projected score51.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.5
Score range: 28–73
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 117.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216Season APEX161.5

23.7Auto20.3

15.2Teleop20.4

13.1Endgame11.8

12Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	20
teleop	22	39
endgame	23	15
foul	0	0
total	74	74

Result

Final score

74 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 23.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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