Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

368.98 – 250.29

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

420 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 533.3 ±14.4

7117Robotic Dragons

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 36.17Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 76

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 225.49Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 107.32Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 585.5 ±12.8

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 87.5Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 105.39Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 57.4Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7117, 1706, 4500

/ 100 compat

Projected

369 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7117, 1706, 4500

Auto

63.8 18%

Teleop

226.1 62%

Endgame

72.4 20%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5823, 6391, 931

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5823, 6391, 931

Auto

56.9 24%

Teleop

133.7 56%

Endgame

46.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score369pts

Blue projected score250.3pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.7
Score range: 227–392
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 601 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

533.3Season APEX585.5

63.8Auto56.9

226.1Teleop133.7

72.4Endgame46.7

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	46
teleop	271	111
endgame	87	24
foul	10	0
total	420	181

Result

Final score

420 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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