Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.47 – 71.21

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.5 ±16.5

8077DREAM

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 14.16Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 31.66Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 33.65Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.2 ±17.7

7452Dupo Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 27.31Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1288RAVEN Robotics

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 27.82Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 16.08Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8077, 6817, 8069

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8077, 6817, 8069

Auto

16.1 22%

Teleop

29.8 40%

Endgame

28.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7452, 1288, 3792

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7452, 1288, 3792

Auto

22.0 34%

Teleop

28.3 44%

Endgame

14.2 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.5pts

Blue projected score71.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.3
Score range: 50–100
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 118.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.5Season APEX243.2

16.1Auto22

29.8Teleop28.3

28.4Endgame14.2

31Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	19
teleop	43	16
endgame	29	7
foul	0	0
total	93	42

Result

Final score

93 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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