Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.37 – 50.56

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 96 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.7 ±13.5

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 34.17Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 94.57Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX -2.37Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 124.3 ±19.6

6744MEHLVILLE RC

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 14.66Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4314Springfield Urban League Abe-Ro-Bots

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 24.84Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5583SistamatiK

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 11.06Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11195, 3931, 3200

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11195, 3931, 3200

Auto

44.4 37%

Teleop

58.5 48%

Endgame

18.0 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6744, 4314, 5583

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6744, 4314, 5583

Auto

20.9 44%

Teleop

11.6 24%

Endgame

14.9 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score126.4pts

Blue projected score50.6pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.8
Score range: 30–147
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 369 vs event baseline 116.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.7Season APEX124.3

44.4Auto20.9

58.5Teleop11.6

18Endgame14.9

53Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	17
teleop	174	18
endgame	79	20
foul	0	0
total	314	55

Result

Final score

314 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 96 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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