Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.48 – 199.28

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.2 ±13.6

3397Robolions

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 22.19Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 115.11Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX -1.82Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.1 ±15.1

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 122.62Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 75.1Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4931Edwardsville Technologies

Provisional

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 1.56Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3397, 9401, 1785

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3397, 9401, 1785

Auto

24.8 20%

Teleop

64.0 51%

Endgame

36.2 29%

Strengths

· 9401 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4500, 4256, 4931

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4500, 4256, 4931

Auto

38.8 21%

Teleop

120.6 65%

Endgame

26.8 14%

Strengths

· 4500 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.5pts

Blue projected score199.3pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.8
Score range: 114–220
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 115.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.2Season APEX297.1

24.8Auto38.8

64Teleop120.6

36.2Endgame26.8

127Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	57
teleop	73	95
endgame	40	47
foul	10	20
total	134	219

Result

Final score

134 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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