Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.77 – 72.74

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.1 ±15.1

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 118.21Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5176RoboBills

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 0.84Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 16.72Rank 37Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.7 ±18.1

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 14.11Rank 17Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7496Robo Indians

Provisional

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 17.77Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4330Rambunction

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 40.86Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6391, 5176, 4329

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6391, 5176, 4329

Auto

34.8 29%

Teleop

76.3 62%

Endgame

11.0 9%

Strengths

· 6391 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7472, 7496, 4330

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7472, 7496, 4330

Auto

25.2 30%

Teleop

41.9 50%

Endgame

17.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.8pts

Blue projected score72.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63
Score range: 52–157
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.1Season APEX160.7

34.8Auto25.2

76.3Teleop41.9

11Endgame17

28Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	28
teleop	70	86
endgame	48	20
foul	0	0
total	165	134

Result

Final score

165 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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