Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.93 – 36.85

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

209 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 47 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.6 ±16.5

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 20.3Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 91.34Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1178DURT (De Smet United Robotics Team)

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 9.29Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163 ±19.2

8077DREAM

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 18.85Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2978Cavaliers

Provisional

Season APEX 32Event APEX 9.56Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX 8.44Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6817, 5823, 1178

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6817, 5823, 1178

Auto

13.2 11%

Teleop

56.7 49%

Endgame

46.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8077, 2978, 5002

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8077, 2978, 5002

Auto

21.3 81%

Teleop

5.2 20%

Endgame

-0.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score120.9pts

Blue projected score36.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.1
Score range: 16–142
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.6Season APEX163

13.2Auto21.3

56.7Teleop5.2

46.2Endgame-0.1

11Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	14
teleop	99	9
endgame	61	8
foul	20	0
total	209	31

Result

Final score

209 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 47 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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