Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.34 – 77.44

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.1 ±15.8

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 10.74Rank 30Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 92

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 12.26Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10322Beyond the Bell

Season APEX 48Event APEX 20.34Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.2 ±15.3

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 41.61Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 18.06Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1288RAVEN Robotics

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 17.77Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9428, 3792, 10322

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9428, 3792, 10322

Auto

24.9 56%

Teleop

14.4 32%

Endgame

5.5 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 931, 8719, 1288

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 931, 8719, 1288

Auto

26.0 33%

Teleop

37.2 48%

Endgame

14.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43.3pts

Blue projected score77.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.1
Score range: 22–98
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 115.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.1Season APEX403.2

24.9Auto26

14.4Teleop37.2

5.5Endgame14.7

65Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	34
teleop	15	70
endgame	12	37
foul	0	0
total	39	141

Result

Final score

39 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 34 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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