Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.39 – 77.4

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 5.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.2 ±15.2

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX -4.07Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1329The ViPrs

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 28.31Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 15.15Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.4 ±20.8

10317CIA Robotics Presents: BIG Furious George

Provisional

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 28.05Rank 23Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

7452Dupo Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 29.2Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2408Shrapnel Sergeants

Provisional

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 20.15Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3200, 1329, 1208

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3200, 1329, 1208

Auto

16.3 38%

Teleop

19.1 44%

Endgame

7.9 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10317, 7452, 2408

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10317, 7452, 2408

Auto

20.9 27%

Teleop

32.5 42%

Endgame

23.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score39.4pts

Blue projected score77.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38
Score range: 18–98
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 115.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.2Season APEX153.4

16.3Auto20.9

19.1Teleop32.5

7.9Endgame23.6

98Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	16
teleop	10	26
endgame	14	20
foul	0	5
total	39	67

Result

Final score

39 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 5.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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