Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.14 – 94.84

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 96.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.3 ±13.5

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX -12.25Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 58.35Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 69.04Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.7 ±15.1

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX -4.99Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 85.75Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8077DREAM

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 14.08Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5002, 4256, 5823

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5002, 4256, 5823

Auto

29.9 28%

Teleop

58.5 55%

Endgame

18.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1785, 3931, 8077

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1785, 3931, 8077

Auto

35.4 43%

Teleop

36.2 44%

Endgame

10.3 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.1pts

Blue projected score94.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.3
Score range: 75–135
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 112.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.3Season APEX293.7

29.9Auto35.4

58.5Teleop36.2

18.7Endgame10.3

47Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	38
teleop	151	60
endgame	61	17
foul	15	30
total	258	145

Result

Final score

258 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 96.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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