Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.01 – 134.73

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.9 ±15.8

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 16.39Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4314Springfield Urban League Abe-Ro-Bots

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 15.08Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 41.54Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251 ±15.6

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 118.56Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4931Edwardsville Technologies

Provisional

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX -2.99Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 19.16Rank 17Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6817, 4314, 931

/ 100 compat

Projected

73 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6817, 4314, 931

Auto

13.3 18%

Teleop

41.9 56%

Endgame

19.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6391, 4931, 7472

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6391, 4931, 7472

Auto

26.2 21%

Teleop

99.5 78%

Endgame

1.1 1%

Strengths

· 6391 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score73pts

Blue projected score134.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.7
Score range: 53–155
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 111.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.9Season APEX251

13.3Auto26.2

41.9Teleop99.5

19.9Endgame1.1

23Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	53
teleop	47	97
endgame	42	30
foul	0	0
total	122	180

Result

Final score

122 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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