Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.96 – 56.82

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

76 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255 ±15.6

2978Cavaliers

Provisional

Season APEX 32Event APEX 7.38Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 83.08Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 46.5Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479 ±13.9

9031Wildbots

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 19.03Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 17.57Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 20.22Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2978, 4256, 11195

/ 100 compat

Projected

137 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2978, 4256, 11195

Auto

37.1 28%

Teleop

63.5 48%

Endgame

32.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9031, 3792, 8069

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9031, 3792, 8069

Auto

27.2 53%

Teleop

13.9 27%

Endgame

10.7 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score137pts

Blue projected score56.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.1
Score range: 34–160
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255Season APEX479

37.1Auto27.2

63.5Teleop13.9

32Endgame10.7

47Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	21
teleop	21	21
endgame	9	11
foul	0	5
total	76	58

Result

Final score

76 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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