Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.42 – 87.25

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

113 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.1 ±11.6

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 124.82Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 34.12Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 21.48Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.9 ±15.3

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 24.15Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7117Robotic Dragons

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 41.9Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 76

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 21.2Rank 37Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9401, 8719, 3792

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9401, 8719, 3792

Auto

38.7 22%

Teleop

75.9 43%

Endgame

60.3 34%

Strengths

· 9401 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8069, 7117, 4329

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8069, 7117, 4329

Auto

16.4 19%

Teleop

38.2 44%

Endgame

31.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score180.4pts

Blue projected score87.3pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.2
Score range: 67–200
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 112.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506.1Season APEX392.9

38.7Auto16.4

75.9Teleop38.2

60.3Endgame31.4

107Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	21
teleop	49	32
endgame	11	20
foul	5	5
total	113	78

Result

Final score

113 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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