Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.72 – 66.7

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

59 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 139.2 ±17.9

1329The ViPrs

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 38.23Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

1288RAVEN Robotics

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 26.44Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3397Robolions

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 26.05Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.5 ±18.6

7496Robo Indians

Provisional

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 16.54Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6744MEHLVILLE RC

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 26.72Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9031Wildbots

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 23.44Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1329, 1288, 3397

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1329, 1288, 3397

Auto

20.7 24%

Teleop

50.9 58%

Endgame

15.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7496, 6744, 9031

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7496, 6744, 9031

Auto

15.6 28%

Teleop

18.9 34%

Endgame

20.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.7pts

Blue projected score66.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24
Score range: 46–112
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 97 vs event baseline 114.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

139.2Season APEX156.5

20.7Auto15.6

50.9Teleop18.9

15.9Endgame20.8

116Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	14
teleop	23	10
endgame	20	14
foul	0	0
total	59	38

Result

Final score

59 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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