Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.44 – 90.79

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

128 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.7 ±15.6

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 14.81Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2978Cavaliers

Provisional

Season APEX 32Event APEX 13.56Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 127.07Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.1 ±19.6

5583SistamatiK

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 22.01Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4330Rambunction

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 43.34Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5060IgKnight

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 25.44Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1208, 2978, 4500

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1208, 2978, 4500

Auto

48.2 33%

Teleop

70.2 47%

Endgame

29.7 20%

Strengths

· 4500 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5583, 4330, 5060

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5583, 4330, 5060

Auto

24.5 27%

Teleop

44.0 48%

Endgame

22.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155.4pts

Blue projected score90.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.6
Score range: 70–176
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 114.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.7Season APEX158.1

48.2Auto24.5

70.2Teleop44

29.7Endgame22.5

51Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	24
teleop	57	28
endgame	25	7
foul	0	0
total	128	59

Result

Final score

128 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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