Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.25 – 55.87

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408 ±18

1178DURT (De Smet United Robotics Team)

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -1.34Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2408Shrapnel Sergeants

Provisional

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 8.46Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 236.13Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.9 ±19.2

5176RoboBills

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 7.19Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 16.13Rank 30Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 92

7452Dupo Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 32.55Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1178, 2408, 1706

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1178, 2408, 1706

Auto

28.1 12%

Teleop

154.9 64%

Endgame

57.4 24%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5176, 9428, 7452

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5176, 9428, 7452

Auto

12.2 28%

Teleop

16.6 38%

Endgame

15.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score243.3pts

Blue projected score55.9pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 187.4
Score range: 36–263
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 112.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408Season APEX156.9

28.1Auto12.2

154.9Teleop16.6

57.4Endgame15

93Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	14
teleop	166	16
endgame	90	9
foul	0	5
total	307	44

Result

Final score

307 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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