Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.51 – 111.71

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.7 ±13.9

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 14.22Rank 17Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX -10.23Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 12.52Rank 37Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.9 ±14.9

6744MEHLVILLE RC

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 25.36Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 22.41Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 63.94Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7472, 5002, 4329

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7472, 5002, 4329

Auto

12.7 62%

Teleop

9.1 44%

Endgame

-1.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6744, 8069, 4256

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6744, 8069, 4256

Auto

29.7 28%

Teleop

59.0 57%

Endgame

15.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.83 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score16.5pts

Blue projected score111.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.2
Score range: -4–133
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.7Season APEX449.9

12.7Auto29.7

9.1Teleop59

-1.3Endgame15.6

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	27
teleop	27	42
endgame	1	42
foul	0	0
total	51	111

Result

Final score

51 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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