Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.58 – 94.51

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 111.8 ±20.8

5583SistamatiK

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 32.88Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7452Dupo Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 35.79Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8077DREAM

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 16.91Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.1 ±14.4

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 65.49Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7117Robotic Dragons

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 18.58Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 76

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 10.44Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5583, 7452, 8077

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5583, 7452, 8077

Auto

20.4 23%

Teleop

39.3 45%

Endgame

27.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3931, 7117, 8719

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3931, 7117, 8719

Auto

35.3 46%

Teleop

38.9 51%

Endgame

2.6 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.6pts

Blue projected score94.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.9
Score range: 65–116
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 113.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

111.8Season APEX369.1

20.4Auto35.3

39.3Teleop38.9

27.2Endgame2.6

69Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	50
teleop	11	99
endgame	0	67
foul	20	0
total	46	216

Result

Final score

46 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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