Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.72 – 45.27

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 72 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.6 ±16.5

4931Edwardsville Technologies

Provisional

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX -1.43Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 9.39Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 28.76Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.2 ±18.1

5060IgKnight

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 1.26Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 48.71Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5176RoboBills

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -4.7Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4931, 6817, 11195

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4931, 6817, 11195

Auto

5.6 16%

Teleop

18.9 53%

Endgame

11.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5060, 5823, 5176

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5060, 5823, 5176

Auto

17.0 39%

Teleop

-2.9 0%

Endgame

29.0 67%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score36.7pts

Blue projected score45.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.6
Score range: 16–66
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 113.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145.6Season APEX193.2

5.6Auto17

18.9Teleop-2.9

11.2Endgame29

90Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	24
teleop	31	70
endgame	8	64
foul	0	15
total	53	173

Result

Final score

53 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 72 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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