Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.35 – 152.8

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.8 ±16.7

4314Springfield Urban League Abe-Ro-Bots

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 20.17Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 245.22Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10322Beyond the Bell

Season APEX 48Event APEX 32.96Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347 ±18

2408Shrapnel Sergeants

Provisional

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 7.43Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 131.19Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7496Robo Indians

Provisional

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 14.18Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4314, 1706, 10322

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4314, 1706, 10322

Auto

41.2 14%

Teleop

186.3 63%

Endgame

68.3 23%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2408, 9401, 7496

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2408, 9401, 7496

Auto

27.9 19%

Teleop

76.5 51%

Endgame

46.4 31%

Strengths

· 9401 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score298.3pts

Blue projected score152.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.6
Score range: 133–318
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 110.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.8Season APEX347

41.2Auto27.9

186.3Teleop76.5

68.3Endgame46.4

28Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	27
teleop	142	63
endgame	57	62
foul	0	5
total	247	157

Result

Final score

247 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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