Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.35 – 81.75

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.2 ±18.4

5583SistamatiK

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 19.74Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 23.36Rank 37Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1178DURT (De Smet United Robotics Team)

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 8.25Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.5 ±17.4

4314Springfield Urban League Abe-Ro-Bots

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 33.15Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 19.5Rank 30Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 92

1329The ViPrs

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 29.1Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5583, 4329, 1178

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5583, 4329, 1178

Auto

19.1 40%

Teleop

11.0 23%

Endgame

17.8 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4314, 9428, 1329

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4314, 9428, 1329

Auto

28.3 35%

Teleop

32.2 40%

Endgame

19.5 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.4pts

Blue projected score81.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.4
Score range: 28–105
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 113 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.2Season APEX158.5

19.1Auto28.3

11Teleop32.2

17.8Endgame19.5

20Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	18
teleop	18	33
endgame	11	20
foul	0	0
total	42	71

Result

Final score

42 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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