Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.16 – 57.69

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

231 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.9 ±17.7

10317CIA Robotics Presents: BIG Furious George

Provisional

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 30.37Rank 23Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 112.62Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4330Rambunction

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 34.17Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.8 ±17.5

9031Wildbots

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 30.43Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 26.56Rank 30Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 92

1178DURT (De Smet United Robotics Team)

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 0.7Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10317, 4500, 4330

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10317, 4500, 4330

Auto

39.5 22%

Teleop

95.9 54%

Endgame

43.0 24%

Strengths

· 4500 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9031, 9428, 1178

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9031, 9428, 1178

Auto

6.6 16%

Teleop

27.6 66%

Endgame

7.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score177.2pts

Blue projected score57.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.5
Score range: 38–197
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 110.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.9Season APEX189.8

39.5Auto6.6

95.9Teleop27.6

43Endgame7.8

107Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	18
teleop	138	3
endgame	27	12
foul	0	5
total	231	38

Result

Final score

231 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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