Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.56 – 63.4

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

43 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 19.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.2 ±14.8

1288RAVEN Robotics

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 38.81Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX -4.27Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 25.02Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.3 ±15.2

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 14.72Rank 37Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX 13.19Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3397Robolions

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 35.49Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1288, 1785, 1982

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1288, 1785, 1982

Auto

16.9 29%

Teleop

28.6 50%

Endgame

11.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4329, 3200, 3397

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4329, 3200, 3397

Auto

11.5 19%

Teleop

29.6 48%

Endgame

20.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59.6pts

Blue projected score63.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.8
Score range: 40–83
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 84 vs event baseline 112.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.2Season APEX191.3

16.9Auto11.5

28.6Teleop29.6

11.8Endgame20.8

58Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	16
teleop	9	24
endgame	9	1
foul	15	0
total	43	41

Result

Final score

43 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 19.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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