Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.33 – 152.4

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.6 ±15.1

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 62.63Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5176RoboBills

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -0.89Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 25.59Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.5 ±16.7

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 119.83Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7117Robotic Dragons

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 18.15Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 76

6744MEHLVILLE RC

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 14.42Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4256, 5176, 8719

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4256, 5176, 8719

Auto

26.8 32%

Teleop

49.1 59%

Endgame

7.5 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6391, 7117, 6744

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6391, 7117, 6744

Auto

18.7 13%

Teleop

114.2 76%

Endgame

16.6 11%

Strengths

· 6391 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87.3pts

Blue projected score152.4pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.1
Score range: 67–172
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 111.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.6Season APEX300.5

26.8Auto18.7

49.1Teleop114.2

7.5Endgame16.6

62Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	44
teleop	16	94
endgame	9	34
foul	20	30
total	75	202

Result

Final score

75 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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