Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.42 – 29.42

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

349 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 66.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445 ±15.1

5583SistamatiK

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX -0.59Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 229.11Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX -7.1Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.6 ±16.3

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX -12.48Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10322Beyond the Bell

Season APEX 48Event APEX 28.1Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 13.8Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5583, 1706, 1208

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5583, 1706, 1208

Auto

29.5 14%

Teleop

149.9 70%

Endgame

34.9 16%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5002, 10322, 6817

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.4 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5002, 10322, 6817

Auto

16.6 69%

Teleop

-4.9 0%

Endgame

12.5 52%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score221.4pts

Blue projected score29.4pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 192
Score range: 9–241
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 108.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445Season APEX223.6

29.5Auto16.6

149.9Teleop-4.9

34.9Endgame12.5

173Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	4
teleop	192	22
endgame	98	9
foul	0	0
total	349	35

Result

Final score

349 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 66.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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