Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

68.8 – 54.57

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.1 ±16.2

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 56.09Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2978Cavaliers

Provisional

Season APEX 32Event APEX -6.35Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

9031Wildbots

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 19.06Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 110.4 ±19.7

2408Shrapnel Sergeants

Provisional

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 13.59Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4931Edwardsville Technologies

Provisional

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 11.97Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1329The ViPrs

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 29.01Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3931, 2978, 9031

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3931, 2978, 9031

Auto

40.7 61%

Teleop

26.2 39%

Endgame

-0.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2408, 4931, 1329

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2408, 4931, 1329

Auto

9.1 19%

Teleop

27.9 59%

Endgame

10.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score68.8pts

Blue projected score54.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.2
Score range: 35–89
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 109.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.1Season APEX110.4

40.7Auto9.1

26.2Teleop27.9

-0.5Endgame10.1

167Consistency172

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	13
teleop	49	21
endgame	11	8
foul	30	0
total	136	42

Result

Final score

136 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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