Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.8 – 119.27

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 118.3 ±18.6

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX 24.18Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8077DREAM

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 18.78Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4314Springfield Urban League Abe-Ro-Bots

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 29.84Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.8 ±13.9

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 13.94Rank 30Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 92

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 94.75Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 10.58Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3200, 8077, 4314

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3200, 8077, 4314

Auto

19.9 30%

Teleop

34.3 51%

Endgame

13.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9428, 4500, 8069

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9428, 4500, 8069

Auto

27.1 23%

Teleop

59.4 51%

Endgame

30.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.8pts

Blue projected score119.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.5
Score range: 53–139
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 108.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

118.3Season APEX460.8

19.9Auto27.1

34.3Teleop59.4

13.1Endgame30.7

103Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	46
teleop	7	91
endgame	14	41
foul	0	0
total	37	178

Result

Final score

37 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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