Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.06 – 104.72

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238 ±18.1

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 36.85Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4330Rambunction

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 22.89Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7452Dupo Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 55.32Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.2 ±14.6

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 25.67Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3397Robolions

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 41.76Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 37.29Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5823, 4330, 7452

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5823, 4330, 7452

Auto

22.6 20%

Teleop

60.1 54%

Endgame

29.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3792, 3397, 931

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3792, 3397, 931

Auto

30.1 30%

Teleop

58.7 59%

Endgame

11.1 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.1pts

Blue projected score104.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.3
Score range: 85–135
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 108.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238Season APEX480.2

22.6Auto30.1

60.1Teleop58.7

29.4Endgame11.1

119Consistency192

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	22
teleop	78	35
endgame	34	23
foul	0	0
total	141	80

Result

Final score

141 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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