Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.91 – 70.93

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

13 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.9 ±17.5

2408Shrapnel Sergeants

Provisional

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 17.34Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX 3.36Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX 8.21Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.9 ±17.7

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 15.06Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4330Rambunction

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 52.97Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4931Edwardsville Technologies

Provisional

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 2.9Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2408, 3200, 5002

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2408, 3200, 5002

Auto

9.9 32%

Teleop

14.4 46%

Endgame

7.0 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8719, 4330, 4931

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8719, 4330, 4931

Auto

23.6 35%

Teleop

37.8 56%

Endgame

6.3 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score28.9pts

Blue projected score70.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42
Score range: 6–94
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 69 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.9Season APEX156.9

9.9Auto23.6

14.4Teleop37.8

7Endgame6.3

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	12
teleop	4	36
endgame	0	3
foul	0	5
total	13	56

Result

Final score

13 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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