Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.26 – 135.2

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 666.1 ±12.4

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 222.8Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5002Dragon Robotics

Season APEX 113Event APEX -20.77Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 36.23Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.8 ±14.8

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 87.18Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 7.84Rank 37Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1288RAVEN Robotics

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 40.18Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1706, 5002, 3931

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1706, 5002, 3931

Auto

38.5 17%

Teleop

154.0 68%

Endgame

34.4 15%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4500, 4329, 1288

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4500, 4329, 1288

Auto

32.8 25%

Teleop

82.2 62%

Endgame

16.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score238.3pts

Blue projected score135.2pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.1
Score range: 116–257
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 485 vs event baseline 103.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

666.1Season APEX255.8

38.5Auto32.8

154Teleop82.2

34.4Endgame16.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	42
teleop	172	77
endgame	51	57
foul	5	10
total	299	186

Result

Final score

299 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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