Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47 – 57.27

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.9 ±16

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 3.34Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7452Dupo Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 39.36Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 4.3Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.6 ±19.6

10322Beyond the Bell

Season APEX 48Event APEX 43.85Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2408Shrapnel Sergeants

Provisional

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 0.75Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4330Rambunction

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 12.67Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8069, 7452, 1785

/ 100 compat

Projected

47 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8069, 7452, 1785

Auto

14.7 34%

Teleop

15.6 36%

Endgame

13.2 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10322, 2408, 4330

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10322, 2408, 4330

Auto

22.2 41%

Teleop

24.3 45%

Endgame

7.7 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score47pts

Blue projected score57.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.3
Score range: 28–76
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 104.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.9Season APEX162.6

14.7Auto22.2

15.6Teleop24.3

13.2Endgame7.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	21
teleop	41	49
endgame	22	22
foul	0	0
total	83	92

Result

Final score

83 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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