Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

20.4 – 13.4

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 66.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.3 ±18.4

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 14.08Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8077DREAM

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 6.7Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10317CIA Robotics Presents: BIG Furious George

Provisional

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -0.38Rank 23Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 99.3 ±19.1

5176RoboBills

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -30.9Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4314Springfield Urban League Abe-Ro-Bots

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 21Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3397Robolions

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 23.3Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3792, 8077, 10317

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3792, 8077, 10317

Auto

8.6 44%

Teleop

-5.0 0%

Endgame

16.0 82%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5176, 4314, 3397

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5176, 4314, 3397

Auto

15.1 100%

Teleop

-2.1 0%

Endgame

1.9 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score20.4pts

Blue projected score13.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7
Score range: -6–39
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 105.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.3Season APEX99.3

8.6Auto15.1

-5Teleop-2.1

16Endgame1.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	19
teleop	23	32
endgame	19	22
foul	5	15
total	78	88

Result

Final score

78 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 66.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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