Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

75.22 – 58.54

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.1 ±15

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 44.29Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX 15.59Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 15.34Rank 30Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.1 ±18

1329The ViPrs

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 24.27Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7496Robo Indians

Provisional

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 9.31Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9031Wildbots

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 24.96Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5823, 3200, 9428

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5823, 3200, 9428

Auto

16.0 22%

Teleop

33.7 47%

Endgame

22.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1329, 7496, 9031

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1329, 7496, 9031

Auto

20.1 35%

Teleop

24.3 43%

Endgame

12.6 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75.2pts

Blue projected score58.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.7
Score range: 40–94
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 104.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.1Season APEX162.1

16Auto20.1

33.7Teleop24.3

22Endgame12.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	20
teleop	53	40
endgame	25	12
foul	0	5
total	104	77

Result

Final score

104 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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