Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

27.16 – 216.43

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 489

Prediction correct · off by 144.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 114 ±18.4

4931Edwardsville Technologies

Provisional

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 13.36Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5583SistamatiK

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 12.66Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 1.14Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 657.5 ±10.4

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 136.3Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 41.95Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 38.18Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4931, 5583, 1982

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.2 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4931, 5583, 1982

Auto

8.6 32%

Teleop

13.2 48%

Endgame

5.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1706, 6391, 4256

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1706, 6391, 4256

Auto

43.3 20%

Teleop

134.2 63%

Endgame

35.7 17%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.49 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score27.2pts

Blue projected score216.4pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -189.3
Score range: 10–233
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 92.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

114Season APEX657.5

8.6Auto43.3

13.2Teleop134.2

5.5Endgame35.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	59
teleop	21	340
endgame	6	75
foul	5	15
total	44	489

Result

Final score

44 – 489

Prediction correct · off by 144.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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